For two decades, elections in Gujarat have reflected an unchanging pattern. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has held office for six terms and the Congress has sat in the opposition. In the 2017 assembly election, BJP registered a vote share of 49% with the Congress not too far behind at 41.4%. This time, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is making an audacious bid for both their vote-banks. While a rise in vote share is a real possibility for AAP, winning seats may be a tall order given the BJP’s dominance. Yet AAP is a potent disruptor of the old order which is why Arvind Kejriwal is the man both the BJP and Congress love to hate.
AAP’s Gujarat experiment is interesting. In 2017, AAP got less than 1% vote share and all its 29 candidates lost their deposits. Undeterred, this time AAP aims to field candidates in all 182 seats, has a CM candidate and is pitching itself as the alternative to the ruling BJP. PM Modi’s dig at “revdi” (freebie) culture appeared to be directed at AAP’s welfarist offers. The BJP is also accusing AAP of surrendering its anti-corruption plank and AAP senior leadership is in CBI crosshairs over an alleged liquor scam. On the face of it, the BJP has little reason to fear AAP. In the 2019 general elections, AAP got less than 1% vote and only won one seat of the 40 it contested. AAP is in office in only one and half states.
