n a week’s time, India will know who has triumphed in the winter assembly polls of 2023. In three of the five states going to the polls — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — Congress is up against BJP in direct one-on-one face-offs. Analysts have called these elections a ‘semi-final’ before the general election of 2024, but they are not so. The stakes for the two national parties are very different.
For BJP, intent on a hat-trick for the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led ruling party in 2024, the winter polls are not deciders of the national mandate. After all in 2018, Congress won assembly polls in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, but BJP swept the general elections in 2019. But for Congress, these elections are key, make-or-break elections, somewhat equivalent to the American primaries, or contests where a candidate is chosen, in this case a candidate for the post of Challenger No 1.
